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Forecasts for a strong 2026-27 El Niño are prompting footwear retailers to weigh potentially weaker demand for cold-weather boots against stronger interest in rain and waterproof footwear in some regions. Retailers have already placed usual orders, but some are adjusting buys cautiously; the timing and overall effect on sales remain uncertain.
U.S. footwear retailers are adjusting their expectations for the 2026-27 boot season as forecasts point to a potentially strong El Niño bringing milder conditions in the North and wetter, stormier weather in parts of the South. The uneven outlook could delay purchases of winter boots while lifting demand for rain and waterproof footwear, but the scale and timing of any sales shift remain uncertain.
Retailers have already placed their usual seasonal orders, according to WWD’s report, and are taking different approaches to additional buying. Rick Ravel, president of Karavel Shoes and Karavel Run in Austin, said his company began tracking weather last November. After reviewing the outlook, it added Australian rain-boot brand Merry People for the first time in more than 30 years. The boots were due to arrive in the month of the report.
Ravel said Karavel’s women’s boot business was up 36 percent for the season after the retailer increased inventory from a conservative level the previous year. He also reported gains in trail footwear: women’s trail shoes and sandals were up more than 16 percent, while men’s were up more than 6 percent. He said the retailer had bought more waterproof styles and that the decision appeared to be paying off. Those figures are company-specific sales reports, not a measure of the wider market.
Other retailers are more guarded. Duffy Lee Baehr, owner of Baehr Feet Shoe Boutique in Spartanburg, South Carolina, said she is limiting inventory partly because of economic concerns and weaker online sales. A mid-Atlantic independent retailer told WWD that El Niño was not a major focus for its business, which it said was not directly exposed to the most disruptive projected weather patterns.
Weather Could Shift Boot Demand
The uncertainty matters because footwear demand is closely tied to when and where people experience cold, rain and snow. A mild winter could leave consumers waiting longer to buy insulated and fashion boots, while heavier rain in some areas may increase interest in rubber, waterproof and work footwear. Retailers must make inventory decisions before the weather and consumer response are fully known.
The outcome may not be a simple gain or loss for the sector. Michael McNamara, chief executive of forecasting firm GhostCom Analytics, told WWD that hurricanes can boost demand for practical weather-ready footwear while disrupting sales of everyday and fashion products. He said a lack of hurricanes striking major East Coast population centers would generally support a more consistent sales pattern, but that observation does not establish how this season will unfold.
Gabriella Santaniello, founder and CEO of A Line Partners, said warmer-than-usual winter weather could postpone purchases because consumers often wait until they need weather-specific products. She said fashion boots may still sell earlier than functional winter footwear, although demand could also arrive later than usual if temperatures stay above average. Whether delayed purchases translate into fewer total sales or spending shifting to other footwear categories is not yet known.
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A Regional Forecast, Not One Winter
The World Meteorological Organization declared on June 2 that 2026-27 would be a historically strong Super El Niño event, according to the source report. The forecast does not mean all parts of the United States will experience the same conditions. Planalytics expects milder winter weather and less snow in the North, while the South may be cooler and wetter than normal. Parts of the West and South, including the Gulf Coast, could face a greater likelihood of storms and flood risks.
These are forecasts, not confirmed seasonal outcomes. The report also notes that retailers’ confidence in weather projections varies over time. Ravel said forecasts become more accurate around 90 days ahead, and his company may push back some sandal orders expected in February and early March after reviewing later updates. For retailers, the challenge is deciding when to commit to inventory while conditions remain unsettled.
Analyst Blake Anderson of Jefferies pointed to a possible exposure for Ugg: the Northeast has become a more prominent region for the brand in search interest and store presence than it was during the 2015 Super El Niño, according to his comments cited by WWD. Anderson said forecasts for a warmer, wetter Northeast could put pressure on demand there. That is an analyst’s assessment, not a confirmed sales result.
““This is the first time we have added rain boots in over 30 years.””
— Rick Ravel, president of Karavel Shoes and Karavel Run
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Sales Effects Remain Unsettled
It is not yet clear how strong the El Niño-related weather patterns will be in each region, when they will arrive, or whether forecasts will change as the season approaches. The source report describes a higher likelihood of certain conditions, not certainty that a specific region will experience a stormy or unusually warm winter.
Retailers and analysts have not established whether delayed boot purchases would be made later, replaced by other footwear purchases or lost altogether. Nor does the report provide industrywide sales data showing that El Niño has already changed demand. The sales increases Ravel cited apply to his own stores and categories.
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Retailers Will Revisit Orders
Retailers are expected to keep tracking regional forecasts and consumer sales as the fall and winter buying season approaches. Ravel said Karavel may delay some sandal deliveries planned for February and early March, with later forecasts informing that decision. Subsequent weather updates and actual store sales will show whether rain-ready products outperform cold-weather boots, and whether purchases are postponed or reduced.
For now, the reported development is a planning challenge rather than a confirmed industrywide sales trend. Retailers’ next decisions will depend on how forecasts evolve, where weather disruption occurs and whether shoppers buy when seasonal conditions make particular footwear necessary.
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Key Questions
What is the expected effect of El Niño on the 2026-27 boot season?
Forecasts point to milder conditions in the North and cooler, wetter conditions in parts of the South. That could delay some winter-boot purchases while supporting demand for rain and waterproof footwear, but actual effects are not yet confirmed.
Have retailers changed their orders?
Retailers have placed their usual orders, according to WWD. Karavel added a rain-boot brand for the first time in more than 30 years, while other retailers described cautious buying. The report does not indicate that all retailers have changed their plans.
Could warmer weather reduce boot sales?
Analysts say warmer winter weather could delay purchases, especially of weatherproof and cold-weather styles. It remains unclear whether customers would buy later, switch to other footwear or spend less overall.
When will retailers have a clearer picture?
Retailer Rick Ravel said forecasts become more accurate about 90 days in advance. Weather outlooks and sales data nearer the season should help retailers decide whether to adjust deliveries and inventory.
Source: rss
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